There is a lot of commentary around the Western Australian government’s “Shark Hazard Mitigation Strategy”. Both sides of the debate have a lot of numbers that they quote surrounding shark attacks, fatalities and other ways in which people are killed. These include numbers like 290; being number of people claimed to have drowned in Australia in 2013. In a quick look at officially published drowning numbers by the Royal Life Saving Society – Australia in their National Drowning Report 2013, it would appear this figure is fairly accurate. You can read the full report here. I haven’t checked the other figures that the protesters have quoted, the image I have included has the final figure as being 2. Representing number of people killed by sharks in 2013.

The Premier of Western Australia, Colin Barnett is quoted in an official media release as saying

“We have had 20 fatal shark attacks in WA in the past 100 years – seven of them in the past three years,” 

So the quoted number of two people killed as a result of shark attack in 2013 seems feasible. The other numbers that are often quoted are the financial costs. In official media statements from the office of the WA Premier they talk of $967,000 being provided for shark mitigation research, you can access the full statement here. There are of course no numbers mentioned on potential loss to tourism as a result of the negative world wide publicity.

The real numbers which I believe drive this issue are just as readily available.

• 31 – the number of seats Colin Barnett’s Liberal Party won at the last WA state election in March 2013 (compared to Labour’s – 21 and the National’s – 7)
• 1130 – the number of days until the next WA state election. Due to electoral reforms in 2011 WA now operates with fixed terms that will see the next election held on the second saturday of March 2017
• 70.92 – the percentage of the two party preferred vote that Colin Barnett received for the seat of Cottesloe at the 2013 state election

On a quick look at where the baited drum lines, either have been or, are to be installed I was not overly surprised to see that they were all in conservative electorates. All metropolitan beaches nominated for “mitigation” strategies are in safely held Liberal seats (including Colin Barnett’s Cottesole electorate). The beaches in the south west of the state are all located in the safe Liberal seat of Vasse comfortably held by state Treasurer Troy Buswell.

A couple of more numbers to finish.

• 23 – the number of years Colin Barnett has been a member of parliament
• 5000 – about the number of people that live in Colin Barnett’s electorate that would have to contact him directly to get him to reverse this policy

Having lived in WA for 13 years including a few years in his Cottesloe electorate. I am confident in saying that without direct action from people in his own electorate, that would put his career in jeopardy, Colin Barnett will just ride out the storm until the numbers tick down toward the next state election.

As an economist and politician, Colin Barnett is ultimately just looking out for number one!